2012 Won't Be About Money And Organization

Chris Maiorana has an excellent blog called "2012 Won't Be About Money and Organization". It should be required reading for anyone interested in our country and the political process. http://tinyurl.com/nk8l94

Much teeth-gnashing in certain segments of the blogosphere this morning over the "importance" of organization and money in the 2012 GOP primary. It's clear that these bloggers believe that these are the most important things when it comes to running for President.

And during the 1980s and 1990s that might have been true, but 2012 will prove otherwise. The 2012 race will be about ideas and the rise of individuals and their personal networks. Money and organization are always important to spreading ideas and reaching voters but if they were the most important thing, Mitt Romney would have won the GOP nomination in a walk.

The DC media which handicaps every aspect of the run and does much to shape it, doesn't see this yet. They are still framing the race through an older lens. So Mitt Romney looks tough to beat today. But if you look back, starting I would submit in 2004 with Howard Dean, we have seen glimpses of what the future holds in terms of politics and frankly for the Mitt Romney's of the world.

Howard Dean's contribution was online fundraising to an extent but I believe his greatest contribution and the one that shaped much of what Obama did online, was his reliance on a devolved campaign infrastructure built on the strengths and weaknesses of outside groups locally organized. The campaign gave the football to its supporters and they ran downfield with it calling many of their own plays. In Iowa this strategy finally backfired on Dean.

Barack Obama's team, took Dean to the next level. They brought the groups within the campaign structure so they could harness the energy these groups created and carefully direct their actions. They provided tools to their supporters justlike Dean but each tool had a purpose in their overall strategy. The effort was grassroots in its breadth but conventionally top-down in its direction. A perfect blend and I suspect something that is hard to replicate.

So what will 2012's evolution be? The one that is the difference maker for the next winning presidential campaign? And is it something that can be bought and paid for?

In my opinion, the campaign that most effectively harnesses individuals and leverages their personal networks not as financial bundlers but as spokespersons for their ideas will win.

With social media being ubiquitous now and even moreso in 2012, it's these influentials and their networks that will carry the day. Very localized groups will still be there in the mix and very important, but you will see these online influentials rise in importance to campaigns, existing wholly outside of a traditional campaign structure, their strength derived from their use of social media platofrms like Twitter and Facebook.

And really that is a back to the future moment for politics. These new influentials are the old precinct workers of early 20th century neighborhood politics. This time around though, with the help of technology, their precincts are national and interconnected; with viral communication tools at the push of a button.

Mark my words, @socialmediamaven's network of friends that he shares his political views with multiple times a day for FREE between now and Jan 1 2011, is more important in terms of actual votes come Iowa Caucus Day than a $500,000 bundler for Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, etc who helps fund a micro-targeted GOTV plan for the Des Moines area...

So while I enjoy a good money and organization story every now and then, I worry and think about more how to reach these new influentials where they eat and sleep...on the strength of my clients ideas not their warchests...

Posted by Chris at 3:37 PM

reposted with permission of Chris Maiorana